Friday, December 7, 2012

Oops, You Mean Obamacare Doesn't Lower Healthcare Costs? My Bad


A man who has committed a mistake and doesn't correct it, is committing another mistake.

Confucius

Radiologists don't make any more mistakes than anyone else, but unlike many other fields, our errors are memorialized forever on the film (or hard drive).

Thus, confronting your mistakes, in front of others, becomes an integral part of being a Radiologist. People can respond by appreciating reality and admitting they are wrong, or hem and haw, and attempt somehow to make something obvious to everyone, disappear.

For a few of my colleagues, admitting error was a far more difficult task than denying the truth of what was clearly displayed in front of them. I have decided people like this become politicians.

A similar situation is now occurring with the proponents of Obamacare, and the responses will be quite telling of the charactering and integrity of all involved. A new study [Heavey, 2010], performed by the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) auditors, predicts that Obamacare will not lower medical costs and may increase them. This is a direct refutation of the promises so recently made to us by President Obama, Congressional leaders, and other proponents of Obamacare. The health care bill was supposed to increase coverage and lower costs, promises immediately questioned by this writer and many others. Such promises were based upon clearly flawed analysis and wishful thinking.

The fact that the bill will not lower costs was inevitable. What is more interesting is how the President and Congressional leaders will react. Will they have the integrity to say "we passed the bill with the best of intentions, but were so intent on getting something passed we fudged the numbers to make it look better" or "the pressure from my union and big business donors was so great that I had to vote for it, no matter what"?

We will see. My guess is that the more likely outcome will be silence from Pelosi and Reid until they lose their leadership positions in Congress, and then they will blame things on the other party.

President Obama does not have it so easy. He will have at least two more years to again confront the staggering difficulties of health care reform while facing a new Congressional leadership. Will he cling to the mistaken assumptions and flawed analysis used to sell Obamacare, or will he be open to admitting the errors and really try to fix some very complex problems? Time will tell us much about the integrity of the man as well as what kind of health care we will have in the future.

Susan Heavey, "U.S. health reforms cause bump in spending: Report," Reuters, September 9, 2010

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